This post is in response to the following question asked by a good friend of mine in Moscow: "What would you see as an ideal, however realistic scenario (use real current players on both sides)?"
Judging what is or what might be realistic is a very difficult call given that what was deemed utterly unrealistic yesterday has a habit of becoming tomorrow's reality. 2011 is converting the realm of fantasy into stark reality with alarming speed. Those who hoped to see Mubarak tried for corruption - as the lightest charge deserved - were occupying an unrealistic position until he appeared in court. Saif Gadaffi was deemed the leading light of the reform movement in Libya but will now go on trial for crimes against humanity either in Libya or - less likely - The Hague. The Syrian people are rising up against the Assad regime in a fashion that would have been deemed utterly unrealistic not so long ago. The idea of 50,000 Russians, a people so emphatically disengaged from politics, demonstrating in Moscow would have been fantastical until Putin was booed at a martial arts fight setting off a chain reaction which led to 50,000 protesters becoming a reality.
What realistic scenario can emanate from the current political crisis? Moreover what constructive scenario can follow? The bottom line must be that the parliamentary election is re-run. Right now that seems unrealistic but might not seem so tomorrow. The main demand is that the people's votes are counted and that they are represented accordingly. This would almost certainly lead to a government comprised of parties other than United Russia and, consequently, of someone other than Putin becoming president next March. Therein lies the fundamental problem: Putin must run - and win - and his colleagues must stay in power as he & they see it as the only way to keep the staggering number of $ billions - perhaps well in excess of $100bn - that have been amassed over the past decade. They also see it as the only way to maintain their freedom. Andrei Piontkovsky quoted a 'Kremlin ideologist' in an excellent editorial in the Wall Street Journal (not usually my favourite paper) today as saying "We perfectly realise what is going on. But its too late to jump off the train. The new authorities will come after us and arrest us if we lose power. That's why we have no option but to keep running like a hamster on a wheel". There's the rub; every single actor on this stage could be prosecuted. The entire edifice is rotten to its very foundations. Everyone knows the corruption is monumental but the rot goes beyond kickbacks and the theft of state funds. What would happen if the apartment bombings of '99 were thoroughly investigated? What would happen if we could benefit from a proper enquiry into the destruction of Yukos, and those who profited from it? What would happen if those responsible for the murder of Sergei Magnitsky (whom I had the fortune to know, albeit briefly) were brought to justice and their wider relationships with more senior actors in the corridors of power exposed? Pull on one thread and it all unravels.
Russia has had enough revolutions and re distributions; something the protesters and Russians in general are apparently weary of. So how does one reform the system and make a dramatic break with the past without tearing down the whole damn edifice, leading to inevitable profiteering by those claiming to rebuild it in the name of the people? There needs to be a 'way out' whereby the perpetrators of crimes can know they will at least keep their freedom.
The only process I can envisage is justice without retribution. The populace needs to know exactly what has happened, who has stolen what and the details of crimes which are likely to include many far worse than theft. By instituting a system similar to South Africa's Truth & Reconciliation Commission - whereby those who admit their crimes in detail are granted immunity from prosecution - Russia can benefit from the catharsis she was denied in the aftermath of the Soviet Union's collapse. Unlike the examples, to name just three, of Poland, Estonia, & the Czech Republic where the old guard were largely expelled from political involvement; so many of the nomenklatura remained in power in Russia - and now not a few are billionaires guarding their treasure - which is the root cause of the imperfection of Russia's transition and why it has been so much less complete than is the case for its former Eastern Bloc vassals.
Justice without retribution would, or might, allow those who are guilty to finally relinquish power without blood being spilt and allow the people to understand the full extent of crimes committed and lies serially told; thus affording a more transparent, representative, responsive and effective system to develop. A system that would not rely on the current regime's preferred mechanism of show trials and jailings. That might not seem realistic now but between now and March '12 who knows?
The only process I can envisage is justice without retribution. The populace needs to know exactly what has happened, who has stolen what and the details of crimes which are likely to include many far worse than theft. By instituting a system similar to South Africa's Truth & Reconciliation Commission - whereby those who admit their crimes in detail are granted immunity from prosecution - Russia can benefit from the catharsis she was denied in the aftermath of the Soviet Union's collapse. Unlike the examples, to name just three, of Poland, Estonia, & the Czech Republic where the old guard were largely expelled from political involvement; so many of the nomenklatura remained in power in Russia - and now not a few are billionaires guarding their treasure - which is the root cause of the imperfection of Russia's transition and why it has been so much less complete than is the case for its former Eastern Bloc vassals.
Justice without retribution would, or might, allow those who are guilty to finally relinquish power without blood being spilt and allow the people to understand the full extent of crimes committed and lies serially told; thus affording a more transparent, representative, responsive and effective system to develop. A system that would not rely on the current regime's preferred mechanism of show trials and jailings. That might not seem realistic now but between now and March '12 who knows?
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