Being half-Magyar is a badge I’ve generally worn with pride. Hungarians bravely tried to rise up against
the totalitarian regime in ’56 only to be brutally suppressed. Whilst the Solidarity movement in Poland did
most of the heavy lifting that led, after a decade long struggle, to the fall
of the Berlin Wall it was Hungary that played the final trump card by opening its
border with Austria in May '89. The Soviet Union’s satellite
states had been provided with a corridor to the West, the Iron Curtain had been
irrevocably pierced and within months the Wall came down and the Eastern Bloc ceased
to be.
There are narcissistic affiliations too. The expression that a ‘Hungarian who enters a
revolving door behind you always exits first’ is a flattering one!
In the mid 90’s Hungary seemed so grown up politically, swapping
governments between Neo Liberals and former Communists with ease and with all
embarking on a similar reformist trajectory.
It was a source of pride that a country so nascent in its democratic
transition could enact the necessary market reforms, regardless of the label or
past of whichever party was in power at the time.
All this has changed with the ascent of Viktor Orban and his Fidesz
party. The comparisons between Orban and
Russia’s Putin abound in the press. The
genesis of each, at least in terms of foreign perception, is uncannily
similar. This is not to suggest that
Orban had a secret services background; quite the opposite - he was a visceral
anti-communist but the warning bells have been ringing for many years now. There has been a long forewarning of Orban’s
nationalist and authoritarian tendencies, along with rebuttals that he’s just a
decent guy trying to get the country on track, all so similar to how earlier
fears about Putin were so plausibly, and disingenuously, explained away.
Putin’s first assault was on NTV; a staunchly independent television
station though editorially ‘manicured’ according to the personal imperatives of its then Oligarch owner - Vladimir Guisinsky. The state takeover, or expropriation, appeared an acceptable price
to pay for what then seemed like the first stable government the new Russia had
seen. The naivety of those of us who
accepted this position was laid bare on July 3rd 2003 when Platon
Lebedev was arrested and the Yukos affair began.
Concerns about Orban’s likely inclination toward a takeover of all
state institutions were diluted by the previous Socialist government’s incompetence and barefaced lying as to the parlous state of Hungary's finances. A free market nationalist with a strong hand
might just be what the doctor ordered to get the country back on track, some thought. It is even true the Fidesz party fairly won the
parliamentary super majority they have since used to pass into law the new constitution.
However, whilst the evils of the Putin clan in
Russia - including sham democracy, subjugation of the rule of law at every
level to political whim, vast personal enrichment to the tune of $billions (and serious allegations of extra judicial killing) – are of a magnitude
that dwarf Orban’s sins; it is a fact that Orban & his Fidesz party have,
in passing a grubby new constitution, consigned Hungary’s well earned
democratic credentials to the dustbin.
The Central Bank is now under the political control of one hegemonic
party. Constituencies have been
gerrymandered to ensure that Fidesz should always maintain its 2/3rd’s
majority - a play straight out of Putin’s handbook!
To quote the Financial Times: ‘The authority of the courts has been limited
and the judiciary subjected to closer political supervision. The constitution
asserts state control over personal conscience and faith. Abortion and same-sex
marriages are outlawed and recognised religions limited.’
The problem for Orban is that
Hungary is a small country of 10 million people without natural resources or any particular geopolitical importance. Whereas Putin enjoyed 8
years of extraordinary economic boom as commodity prices soared, while the
political vice tightened & the world kept schtum; Hungary is already experiencing the damage the
markets can inflict upon states that engage in such malfeasance. Hungary’s sovereign debt has been downgraded
to Junk status and the Forint is at an all time low against the Euro. Yet another EU country is on the brink of default. The question is; does a country with such a constitution deserve to be in the EU at all?
Ceawlin, you make many valid points. I am 1/4 Hungarian (although admittedly I know no one from there). In considering the EU of today, one might draw an interesting parallel with the Holy Roman Empire - so many eyes looking to the wisdom and stability of Prussia, as it were, to hold much together - and Russia, seeming to be on the outskirts, but always making its presence felt. How history repeats... Hungary has for centuries been the odd-country-out. Even under Habsburg rule of Austria-Hungary, Hungarians held distinct citizenship from the Austrians and their shared Emperor, as one could not be a citizen of both Hungary and Austria. Non-German populations in Hungary were said by many scholars to have contributed to the exclusion of Austria and Hungary from the late 19th century unification of German-speaking peoples into the German Empire under Kaiser Wilhelm I. Many also purport that the future of Hungary in the 20th century might have been quite different if the sympathetic Imperial Crown Prince Rudolph of Austria-Hungary had not died under suspicious circumstances at Mayerling (suicide is still only a theory). Regardless, there are few who would probably argue that anti-Magyar Archduke Franz Ferdinand was a successful replacement as heir to the empire, the poor man being known only for receiving a very famous bullet. All in all, as I ruminate about a country with a plethora of political and economic questions, basing my musings admittedly only on a bio of Prince Rudolph I recently enjoyed and a few Wikipedia articles, I cannot help but wonder to what post-EU group Hungary could belong. The nature of Hungarian allegiances seems secondary to the need to ally. Fascism, Communism - the EU is a step up, indeed. It is a most difficult situation, as Hungary, Greece, and others pull at the economic stability of the EU, and I cannot be surprised by concerns you and many others express about Orban. He is charismatic and presides over a people who predominantly are not leaders but joiners, according to centuries of history. In this, there is always danger, whether it be a danger to the EU from within or without.
ReplyDeleteThank you for taking the time to comment. I asked the question as a provocation and do not myself believe that Hungary should be expelled from the EU - not yet anyway. I agree with you that there is no other group that could benefit Hungary and to cast her aside at this juncture would be to the detriment of Hungary and the EU as a whole. It is vital however that Hungary understands that the threat of legal action by the EU is credible and indeed, that if the recalcitrant ruling class do not make amends then expulsion must be seen as the logical conclusion. However, the EU's policy response so far has been unusually robust and I suspect it will yield results from the government and legislature.
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